The Freakish Fusion Of Anti-Zionism and Russophilia Middle East states use Russia as an alternative and a signal to the West. About Vance Serchuk September 12, 2019 10:32 AM. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE236.html. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. By stitching consensus on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with France and the US, Putin was able to divide the NATO. Over that same period, Russia has provided less than $100 million in humanitarian aid to the Middle East. 109 Nicu Popescu and Stanislav Secrieru Annex Abbreviations 117 Notes on the contributors 119 11 9 10 8 . Moscow is bringing together friends and foes to a common objective- combating Erdoğan’s belligerent Turkey. Cyprus, being a member of the European Union, can do Russia’s bidding within the Brussels-based body. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. In the quarter century after the end of the Cold War, Russia and Turkey made a spectacular transition from age-old adversity to mutual respect and understanding, despite the many differences. This report is part of the RAND Corporation perspective series. Simply stated, there is no comparison. by. Podcasts Home; ECFR's World in 30 Minutes; ECFR Clips; Event Recordings; Subscribe to Podcasts; Subscribe to our podcasts. Russia in the Middle East: Part Five. The involvement in Libya is an extension of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) policy, as presented in a strategy paper on Russian foreign policy in the autumn of 2016. Cyprus, for instance, coordinates with Moscow to pressurise a belligerent Ankara. Key Words: Middle East; Russian Energy Strategy; US and the Middle East Energy is the blood of the modern industrial society and a vital factor which has the impact on the world economy and national security. The research was conducted by the Center for Middle East Public Policy. India’s top investigative agency CBI begins probing Cambridge Analytica, Facebook set to be nailed, China may get aggressive on the Indian border again and is set to lose more heads this time, A fuming Netanyahu and an angry MBS – Why the USA will lose both Saudi and Israel together, Biden’s reversal of Trump’s Israel policy is a disaster in making and can turn Middle East into a searing inferno, Israelis are now racing sports cars in Saudi Arabia. “Russia has managed to create the perception in the Middle East that it is more powerful, more capable and more relevant than the United States,” he said. Russia’s Waning Influence. Share on Facebook; Share on Twitter; Share on … Turkey and Israel must now accept the presence of Russian troops on their borders. The 2015 Russian military intervention in Syria was a pivotal moment for Moscow’s Middle East policy. In 2015, Russia launched a military intervention. High-level visits and arms sales will not achieve those ends. The decision to increase Russia’s presence in the Middle East was also determined by economic drivers. Description. But Putin might have just played a sharp diplomatic move on Ankara, by isolating Erdoğan’s Turkey in all conflict areas including the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya, South Caucasus and Syria. In 2018, China announced billions in loans for the region, but only $100 million in assistance. The greatest limitation of Russia's Middle East strategy is that it is not Russia, but the Middle Eastern states themselves that determine the depth of their relations with Moscow. Moscow’s approach in the Middle East may appear arbitrary as it lacks a clear ends-driven approach, focuses on the short-term, and seems, at least superficially, to be ruthlessly opportunistic and transactional. Privacy Policy Agreement * I agree to the Terms of use and Privacy Policy. The authors contend that while Russia may not have a clear ends-driven regional strategy, its actions suggest it is applying a generalized, functional strategy: It constantly seeks to improve its short-term economic, military, and political advantages while reducing the short-term advantages of prospective adversaries. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (R) meets with Khalifa Haftar eastern Libya-based military commander at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Reception House in Moscow, Russia … Just as Russia seeks to engage in the Middle East for its own benefit, these states also seek to use Russia to their advantage. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. While Russia does have a long-term strategy in the Middle East, it is freighted with significant restraints and constraints. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. Russia in the Middle East: Part Six. To some in the United States, Russia may look like a declining power. Does the fact that Russia outplayed the United States on Syria suffice as evidence of Moscow’s “grand strategy” for the broader region? So, Russia’s action plan is to simmer down tensions between the UAE and Iran and pit them against an isolated Turkey instead. Russian airpower saved the Assad regime from certain defeat. SUMMARY . Clear Policies Are Often Lacking, Strategies for Pushing North Korea Toward Denuclearization, Getting to Know Military Caregivers and Their Needs, Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change, Improving Psychological Wellbeing and Work Outcomes in the UK. Sladden, James, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, and Sarah Grand-Clement, Russian Strategy in the Middle East. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School, by James Sladden, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, Sarah Grand-Clement. Jon Alterman: In March of 2020, as the much of the world was shutting down in the face of Covid-19, a price war between Russia and OPEC was heating up. Russia's strategy in Syria shows how to win a Middle East war Kamal Alam Published date: 11 July 2018 08:20 UTC | Last update: 2 years 6 months ago The Kremlin has been careful not to overcommit. Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. When Russia’s resources and opportunities are scarce and engagements with Middle Eastern states decrease, influence will decrease accordingly. Largely absent from the Middle East for the better part of the previous two decades, Russia intervened to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime and reasserted itself as a … Your email address will not be published. Today, France and the US are at loggerheads with an unworthy NATO member- Turkey. Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele that includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms. Funding for this venture was provided by philanthropic contributions from RAND supporters and income from operations. This widespread narrative originated, in particular, in the Syrian crisis and the Russian military intervention in the country. Russia is intensifying its political and military involvement in Libya as part of a new Middle East strategy, which has several objectives. website. RSS. Hence Russia interprets its Middle East strategy as autonomous from the Sunni-Shite clash and absolutely non-ideological – and this is exactly the Westerners’ mistake – while the Middle East is obviously central to Russian security, but equally irrelevant to the security of NATO which, however, has de facto lost Turkey. Absent deeper commitments, Russia is beholden to other actors, dynamics and events to create windows of opportunity. As of late 2016, this lack of focus on Russian activity in the broader Middle East had left the important question of Moscow's regional strategy and longer-term intent all but unaddressed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Over the last few years, the myth of a Russian “return” to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has captured increasing attention from policy-makers all over the area and beyond, as well as the academic community. Jon Alterman: Natasha Hall is now my colleague at CSIS, but in 2015 she was interviewing Syrian refugees in the field, first for the U.S. government and then for a U.S.-based non-governmental organization. Russia's multifaceted diplomatic relations and recent interventionist trend are likely to be superseded by longer-term economic, energy, and arms deals. Even when it comes to the democratic world, represented by the EU and NATO, Putin has managed to outdo Turkey. Russia in the Middle East: Part Two. Russia’s central relationships in the Middle East are with three non-Arab states—Iran, Turkey, and Israel—all of which are stable by comparison with their Arab neighbors. September 8, 2020. It is easier to grasp Russian strategy by contrasting it with Chinese strategy. This Perspective seeks to identify the important elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria, to define the nature of Russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a Russian strategy in the Middle East. Largely absent from the Middle East for the better part of the previous two decades, Russia intervened to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime and reasserted itself as a major player in the region’s power politics. Of course, Russia would be the biggest gainer if the UAE and Iran focus their energies on reining in Turkey, rather than fighting each other. Russia has therefore succeeded in cornering Turkey on every front. With the Russian intervention in Syria, Russia is militarily back in the Middle East for the first time since the Cold War. Russia seeks to be able to effectively influence and shape outcomes, but a lack of means limits what it can achieve. Despite tensions at the beginning of the Syrian conflicts, Russia has maintained excellent relations with Turkey, the Second Armed Force of NATO and the strategic key to the link between the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Russia’s military intervention in Syria has the potential to shift the long-term geostrategic outlook for the Middle East. This project is a RAND Venture. The Middle East states have the greatest power and agency to determine the viability of any Russian strategy. The title of this seminar/workshop is “Russia’s Strategy in the Middle East.” And to me that suggest two things: one, that there is one, a strategy for the Middle East, and that, two, that other countries also have other strategies in the Middle East. Russia’s new “grand strategy” in the Middle East. As we discussed earlier this year, Russia has... Israel: Without a Significant Reset, Democracy Will Continue to Suffer. Russia has goals, but to Western observers they appear to be either transactional or, in the longer term, generalizable to the point that they constitute broad precepts rather than global, regional, or state-specific strategies. Interestingly, Moscow has also managed to drive a deep wedge between the UAE’s arch-foe Iran and Turkey. Russia’s strategy in the Middle East is to stay closer to all other players in the region than they are to one another. Please enter your username or email address to reset your password. 02 March 2016: Russia’s strategy in the Middle East and its implications for the region by ECFR Events. Recurring confrontations with the West are one of the main factors compelling Russia to intensify its activities in the Middle East. In 2011, it looked as if the Arab Spring uprisings would deal a further blow to Russia's declining influence in the Middle East, by toppling Syrian President -Assad, one of Bashar alMoscow's few remaining allies in the region. The region occupies a special role in Russia’s strategy for strengthening its producers’ presence in the international oil and gas markets. Sladden, James, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, and Sarah Grand-Clement, Environmental and Natural Resource Management, Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, Rethinking the U.S. This perception is at least partly accurate. Nowadays, oil and natural gas are the most important strategic resources in the international energy mix. Tagged #russia #syria #us #mena. Conclusion: Russia in the Middle East – from surge to quagmire? And I just want to Russia’s military and security strategy in the Middle East is still evolving, and it feels like Russia is becoming an increasingly sophisticated player … Russia’s inability to finance a sustained and meaningful presence in the Middle East is a handicap equally stressed upon by former Kremlin adviser Alexander Nekrassov. It states that Moscow will continue to contribute to stability in the region and focus on the "political and diplomatic resolution of conflicts." Approach to the World, How Law Enforcement Can Mitigate Bias in Machine Learning Decision Aids, Helping Mothers Return to Work Is a Gender Equality Issue, Who Gets Care When Hospitals Are Overwhelmed? With change sweeping across the region, Russia will be unable to formulate a meaningful, lasting strategy in the foreseeable future, he added. Subscribe to the weekly Policy Currents newsletter to receive updates on the issues that matter most. Firstly, Russian interests in these two conflict zones themselves militate directly against Turkish interference. When Russia intervened in the Middle East, Syria found itself in a Hobbesian state of nature with thousands of groups fighting each other and … Lack of Strategy: Twenty years after the end of the Cold War, Russia has not developed a coherent foreign policy towards the Middle East, said Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher. But Russia’s Middle East strategy holds clear limitations and has real practical drawbacks. This website uses cookies. In the Middle East, Russian propaganda fuels conspiracy thinking, feeding on the region's existing proclivities. Therefore, Russia is trying to drive regional sentiment against Turkey. Russian strategy in Syria and the Middle East is clearly marked by shaping regional security and politics thru time-tested means of forward deployed military forces on land and sea, economic and security assistance, and bi-lateral training exercises taking place in both regional states and Russia itself. What are the elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria? It was proposed to exchange views on the situation in Syria, Libya and Yemen.”. When it comes to Russia or its President, Vladimir Putin, the world interprets Russian firepower as a sheer military muscle, or at best, manipulative cyber warfare. Russia in the Middle East . Erdoğan’s Azeri separatist narrative, following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, has caused fissures in the Iran-Turkey relationship. Over the last few years, the myth of a Russian “return” to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has captured increasing attention from policy-makers all over the area and beyond, as well as the academic community. October 5, 2020. The Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS.edu) is the largest public policy Ph.D. program in the nation and the only program based at an independent public policy research organization—the RAND Corporation. Rather than always being on the defensive, the United States should work harder at creating first impressions. Russia's Strategy for the Middle East: Stabilize, Revitalize, Create Chaos. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. With change sweeping across the region, Russia will be unable to formulate a meaningful, lasting strategy in the foreseeable future, he added. This Perspective seeks to identify the important elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria, to define the nature of Russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a Russian strategy in the Middle East. What is Russia's strategy in the Middle East? Russia has goals, but to Western observers they appear to be either transactional or, in the longer term, generalizable to the point that they constitute broad precepts rather than global, regional, or state-specific strategies. From sidelines to centre stage . Russia, trying to restore its great power status, accrues influence in the Middle East. The Russian Foreign Ministry has stated, “Russia and the UAE are consistent supporters of the settlement of conflicts and crises in this strategically important region of the world using political methods, through an inclusive dialogue that takes into account legitimate interests and concerns of all parties involved. 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During the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, French President Emmanuel Macron helped in activating the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, which is led jointly by the US, France and Russia. While Russia does have a long-term strategy in the Middle East, it is freighted with significant restraints and constraints. Saudi Arabia has given Russian President Vladimir Putin the red-carpet treatment. Russia's strategy could limit US influence in Europe and Turkey, which perhaps explains the change in Washington's tone in Libya, and the effort to deploy troops in Tunisia. This widespread narrative originated, in particular, in the Syrian crisis and the Russian military intervention in the country. Jon Alterman: If you find yourself with a layover at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo International Airport and have some time to spare, take some time to watch the news.Large flatscreen TVs are mounted all over the terminals, proudly playing news in different languages—Arabic, French, English, and Spanish. How justified are these expectations? Change, as one Russian workshop … Russia's Middle East strategy appears to be reaping dividends, but it is not without significant challenges and risks. About Vance Serchuk September 12, 2019 10:32 AM ... the growing influence of the Kremlin as a strategic force across the greater Middle East… The title of this seminar/workshop is “Russia’s Strategy in the Middle East.” And to me that suggest two things: one, that there is one, a strategy for the Middle East, and that, two, that other countries also have other strategies in the Middle East. Russia’s strategy in the Middle East and its implications for the region. Russia's Strategy in the Middle East Russia's Strategy in the Middle East . Russia is likely to remain an important actor in the Middle East for the foreseeable future. iTunes. “Both the unrest in Syria and the Arab Spring presented Russia with the opportunity to increase its engagement in the region and were accompanied by a rapid uptick in Russian economic and political activities across the region,” explains Becca Wasser for RAND. Lack of Strategy: Twenty years after the end of the Cold War, Russia has not developed a coherent foreign policy towards the Middle East, said Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher. Official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova disclosed that the Ministers of the two countries intend to discuss the developing situation in the Middle East and North Africa. But Russia had in fact been edging its way back into the region since at least 2007, emphasising political and economic relations over security relationships. Russia has been playing a more active role in the Middle East in the last five years, and before committing to strategic cooperation with Russia, it is helpful to judge Russia’s objectives and strategies in the region. This widespread narrative originated, in particular, in the Syrian crisis and the Russian military intervention in the country. Russia has little to offer to the region’s Arab societies, which need security, stability, and opportunities for political and economic modernization. Communications Officer Kadri Liik @KadriLiik on Twitter. Huawei and ZTE could be back anytime now, Biden Administration is all set to purge the “racist and extremist” elements in the US Army. Sunday, September 10, 2017 at … The Limits of Russian Strategy in the Middle East by Ben Connable and Becca Wasser Becca Wasser is a policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, where her primary research areas include wargaming, international security, and US defence and foreign policy in the Middle East. The issues that matter most, France and the Google Privacy Policy Agreement * agree... Uae towards Turkish belligerence in the Middle East, it was proposed to exchange views on the defensive, United. Do Russia ’ s strategy for strengthening its producers ’ presence in the Middle,... The challenges facing the public and private sectors is Russia 's Middle East Russia 's in! Region occupies a special role in Russia ’ s belligerent Turkey s military intervention in Syria, Libya and ”! To determine the viability of any Russian strategy in the Middle East states use Russia an... 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